Clay, New York 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

557
FXUS61 KBGM 220544
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
1244 AM EST Sun Dec 22 2024

.SYNOPSIS...
Lake effect snow showers are expected to continue through
tonight, especially across the Finger Lakes Region to parts of
the Southern Tier of NY. Very cold weather is expected through
Sunday night. Another clipper system will arrive Monday night
into Tuesday with another chance for light wintry precipitation
as temperatures moderate again heading towards Christmas.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TODAY/...
1020 PM Update:

Narrow bands of lake effect snow continue in the NW flow over
the region. The steadiest snow bands are bringing visibilities
down to around 1 mile, or close to half an inch per hour
snowfall rates. This is mainly occurring across Cayuga, SW
Onondaga and Cortland county at this time. There are other areas
of light snow and flurries out there streaming off the Finger
Lakes. Additional snow amounts of a dusting to 2 inches is
expected by daybreak Sunday. Winter weather advisories and cold
advisories were reissued, with no significant changes.

650 PM Update:

The most organized narrow band of lake effect snow is running
across southern Onondaga, SW Madison and northern Chenango
counties at this time. This band is tapping into moisture off of
Lake Ontario, with a slightly longer fetch. Several other
weaker, narrow bands of light lake effect snow are ongoing in
the NW flow downwind of the Finger Lakes. The overall flow will
remain generally NW through the overnight, but could veer
slightly more northerly once again later this evening...this
would nudge the narrow bands south/west a few miles. Will leave
the winter weather advisories and cold weather advisories in
place, as the near term forecast remains well on track.
Additional snowfall amounts should be light;between 1 to 2.5
inches, locally 3 inches in the advisory areas. Overnight lows
are on track to reach -5 to +10F over the region.

350 PM Update:

Multiple bands of lake effect snow continues to impact parts of
the Finger Lakes Region to the Southern Tier of NY and even
extending into the Northern Tier of PA. Enhancement off of the
Finger Lakes has resulted in very narrow bands of localized
heavier snowfall rates. These bands have been slowly drifting to
the north and east. This is expected to continue into tonight
before ending by mid Sunday morning as high pressure moves in.
Winter Weather Advisories remain until 4AM for Cortland,
Onondaga, Seneca, Southern Cayuga, Tioga, and Tompkins counties.
It was also added for Broome County since amounts from the lake
effect snow may reach 4 inches in some spots.

The other story for tonight will be the very cold temperatures
and wind chills. Lows are expected to be in the single digits
area-wide with some readings below zero in the usual colder
spots of Oneida County and the Catskills. It will also remain on
the breezy side overnight, which will result in very cold wind
chills, especially for the Mohawk Valley to the Catskills and to
the Poconos. In NY, Cold Weather Advisories were expanded to
include Oneida, Madison, Chenango, Otsego, and Sullivan counties
(in addition to Delaware County which was already in the
advisory). Cold Weather Advisories were issued for all of
Northeast PA with a lower criteria for the Wyoming Valley to the
Poconos (-10F instead of -15F). The Northern Tier of PA may fall
just barely short of criteria (-15F there), but it was close
enough to issue an advisory there as well to simplify
messaging.

With a lingering northwest flow, some light lake effect snow
showers may linger through Sunday morning across the Finger
Lakes Region. This will end by the afternoon with high pressure
taking over. Some lake effect clouds are expected for those same
areas, but otherwise skies will be becoming mostly sunny.
However, with a cold airmass in place, temperatures will be
well below normal with highs only in the teens.

With clear skies, light winds, and a fresh snowpack efficient
radiational cooling is expected Sunday night. Therefore
continued to go several degrees below the NBM guidance for
forecast lows. Currently forecasting lows to be in the lower
single digits with many areas at or a few degrees below zero.
Additional Cold Weather Advisories may be needed, although with
the lighter winds, it is possible that fewer spots approach
criteria compared to tonight.

&&

.SHORT TERM /TONIGHT THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
355 PM Update...

High pressure over the area Monday morning will slide to the
east during the afternoon and sunshine to start the day will
give way to an increase in clouds. Afternoon highs won`t be
quite as harsh Monday compared to Sunday with temperatures in
the 20s. Breezy conditions are expected to develop Monday
afternoon into the evening hours, especially across the higher
terrain of CNY, as a warm front associated with our next clipper
system pushes through to the north and east. The surface low
with the clipper will cross the northern Great Lakes and into
our region later Monday night into Tuesday with a widespread
light snowfall. The steadiest snowfall looks to fall between the
late evening Monday night through about 12Z Tuesday before
becoming more intermittent the rest of the day Tuesday. A
general 1 to 3 inches of snow is expected with this clipper
with localized higher amounts around 4 inches possible near or
north of the NY Thruway. Lows Monday night range from the mid
teens to the lower 20s. Tuesday`s highs will be mainly in the
low to mid 30s with some valley locations reaching the upper
30s.

High pressure begins to build back in Tuesday night with lows
in the upper teens to the mid 20s.

&&

.LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
355 PM Update...

Wednesday, Christmas Day, is expected to be a quiet one
weather-wise with a blend of sun and some clouds with high
pressure in control at the surface and ridging building in
aloft. Highs are expected to range from the upper 20s to the mid
30s. The second half of the week seems to be shaping up largely
dry as well with upper level ridging remaining in place
Thursday and Friday. Temperatures will be on the rise during
this time with highs expected to range from the upper 30s to
lower 40s by Friday and that warming trend is expected to
continue into the weekend.

&&

.AVIATION /06Z SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...

Lake effect clouds and snow showers are expected to continue
through the morning hours for SYR, ITH, and BGM, with MVFR and
brief IFR restrictions possible. Lingering MVFR ceilings are
expected to persist at most of the Central NY terminals Sunday
morning, but gradual improvement is expected by Sunday
afternoon.

Outlook...

Monday...Mainly VFR.

Monday night through Tuesday...Occasional restrictions possible
in scattered snow showers.

Wednesday through Thursday...Mainly VFR.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...Cold Weather Advisory until 9 AM EST this morning for
     PAZ038>040-043-044-047-048-072.
NY...Cold Weather Advisory until 9 AM EST this morning for NYZ009-
     036-037-045-046-057-062.
     Winter Weather Advisory until 4 AM EST early this morning for
     NYZ016>018-025-044-055-056.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...BJG
NEAR TERM...BJG/MJM
SHORT TERM...DK
LONG TERM...DK
AVIATION...MPK