Clay, New York 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

294
FXUS61 KBGM 101757
AFDBGM

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Binghamton NY
157 PM EDT Tue Jun 10 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
A few showers and isolated thunderstorms will make their way
through the region this afternoon with a drier airmass moving in
tonight. Tomorrow is expected to be dry before a more unsettled
weather pattern settles in for late week into the weekend.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/...
135 PM Update

A front is making its way through the Finger Lakes and CNY
early this afternoon with a line of showers and isolated
thunderstorms. Forecast soundings from the HRRR and RAP show a
strong mid level inversion that will help limit updrafts to
around 15 to 20 thousand feet. This will help keep the storms
from becoming severe this afternoon as there is about 40 knots
of shear and over 1000 J/kg of SBCAPE. Late this afternoon after
peak heating, there is a chance that an isolated storm or two
will be able to get through that mid atmosphere capping and be
able to become more organized. Quarter size hail and isolated
damaging wind gusts will be possible with any of these storms.

Behind this front, a drier air mass moves in with mostly zonal
flow aloft and the 250 and 500 mb jet to the north. Tonight
through Wednesday night is expected to be dry with some breezy
winds tomorrow as the pressure gradient tightens with a low
passing to the north.

&&

.SHORT TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
157 PM update...

Main concerns in the short term are focused on the warm
temperatures and quasi-zonal flow aloft that will be present
later this week and should be able to generate some
afternoon/evening showers and storms.

The synoptic flow on Thu and Fri will mostly be defined by a
broad, low amplitude trough over much of eastern Canada...a
somewhat dampened ridge over the Southeast US and a cutoff low
in the Southern Plains. A weak upper wave and surface inverted
trough in the Upper Midwest will get sheared off and try to move
to the east across the southern Great Lakes into the Northeast
late Thursday and Thu night. Currently carrying a 15-25 pct
chance of showers and a few weak storms later in the day Thu.
There is expected to be a dividing line between cooler, more
stable air, with high shear to the north...and warm, moist,
unstable air to the south. Chances for thunderstorms (>20 pct)
will reside south of the NY/PA border, but greater chances for
strong to severe are expected even farther to the south.

Thursday night, high pressure at the surface will build in from
the northwest and lightly settle in over the region.
Temperatures will cool off into the lower 50s Thu night as skies
clear off and winds go calm. This will also likely induce some
valley fog into Fri morning.

The cutoff low over the Southern Plains will lift northeastward
into the southern MS valley region during the day Friday as a
weak embedded upper short wave in the southern Great Lakes
tracks eastward. This flow pattern will allow a stronger push of
southerly winds and usher in a warmer and more humid, unstable
air mass in Friday. The combination of increased instability
(500-1000 J/kg ML CAPE), deep layer shear around 30-40 kt, steep
lapse rates and weak forcing from the s/w will allow for
increased chances (40-60 pct) for showers and thunderstorms.
This convection doesn`t appear to be well-organized at this
point, so the threat of severe weather is very low at this time.
Will need to keep an eye on the late Friday timeframe for
future severe potential.

&&

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY/...
157 PM update...

The persistent cyclonic synoptic pattern will become very
chaotic and active Fri night through the weekend and into early
next week as the broad upper trough over eastern Canada
persists. Model guidance continues to indicate several waves
rippling eastward through the eastern Great Lakes and Northeast
US during this time. The weekend will likely (49-60 % chance) be
defined by scattered showers and thunderstorms, with
afternoon/daytime temperatures in the 70s and overnight lows in
the upper 50s and lower 60s.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z TUESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/...
A line of showers and thunderstorms are making their way through
the Finger Lakes and CNY and will progress through the rest of
the region by this evening. ITH, ELM, and SYR have had the front
move through with RME impacted currently. BGM and AVP will see
the front over the next few hours. It is unlikely that
conditions will become IFR unless a cell hits the terminal
directly but there will be some thunderstorms in the vicinity of
the airports.

Behind the front, VFR conditions are expected over the next 24
hours with only an increase in the winds expected tomorrow
morning after sunrise.

Outlook...

Wednesday through Friday...Mainly VFR with isolated showers
possible.

Saturday into Sunday...Restrictions possible in showers and
isolated thunderstorms.

&&

.BGM WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
PA...None.
NY...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...AJG
NEAR TERM...AJG
SHORT TERM...BJT
LONG TERM...BJT
AVIATION...AJG